Why We Research in a World Without Guarantees

David Hume is often the philosopher who keeps researchers up at night. He famously argued that the concept of "cause" is an illusion. He claimed that all we actually experience are sequences of events: we see A, and then we see B. But we never see the invisible force that makes A cause B.

To assume that the sun will rise tomorrow just because it rose today is, according to Hume, irrational. It is an assumption based on Induction, using past events to predict the future.

The Trap of Circular Reasoning

When I first engaged with Hume’s reasoning, I found myself nodding along. He points out a glaring flaw in how we think: we use inductive reasoning to justify inductive reasoning.

If you ask, "Why will the future behave like the past?" and the answer is "Because it has always done so in the past," you are trapped in a circle. You are using the very thing you are trying to prove as the proof itself. From a strictly logical perspective, Hume is right. It doesn't make sense.

Sequences Over Certainty

I realized that viewing life as a "sequence of events" feels more accurate than viewing it as a rigid chain of causation. A doesn't always cause B. Sometimes A happens, then B happens, then C happens.

To be honest, fully believing that the future will behave exactly like the past is rigid thinking. As humans, we evolve. Contexts change. Variables shift. Just because something happened yesterday doesn't guarantee it will happen tomorrow.

So, What is the Point of Research?

If Hume is right and we can't prove causation, why do we bother with quantitative research? Why collect data if the future is uncertain?

I believe the point of research isn't to predict the future with 100% certainty, but to identify patterns. We use those patterns to explain human behavior to the best of our current ability.

Research is a living, breathing thing. It evolves. What was once considered hard "evidence" ten years ago might not be applicable today because society has changed or new insights have arisen. Research is a lifelong practice of updating our worldview, not a way to write permanent laws in stone.

Hume teaches us humility. He reminds us that while we can map the patterns of the past, we must always remain open to the surprises of the future.